An empirical application of data envelopment analysis in credit rating

Mariya Demirova, Ryerson University

Date of Award

2010

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Department

Mechanical Engineering

First Advisor

Mohamed Wahab

Abstract

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric optimization technique that evaluates the relative efficiency of decision-making units and is used in this thesis as an empirical estimator of credit rating. The purpose of this research is to combine different DEA models and technique and obtain the best model that captures different aspects of credit risk. Various models are evaluated by combining four Slack DEA models with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Absolute Weights Restriction, and Stochastic DEA.

We found that Goal Vector Approach Stochastic PCA (SGV+PCA), applied to a sample consisting of five sectors, is the best model. SGV+PCA DEA model obtains a high correlation with Standard & Poor’s (S&P) credit rating and with Market Price; it also classified twelve bankrupted companies within the 17% of the less efficient companies in the sample, suggesting that the model is a good financial health estimator and is a potential tool for credit rating analysis.